(Updated standings can be found at the bottom of this post)
ATP World Tour Finals – Final
Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer – Head to Head: 16-12, Federer
(Novak Djokovic won, 7-6 (6), 7-5 – Read all about it here)
Amy’s Pick: I should’ve known that Roger Federer wouldn’t be the same player in his semifinal match against Andy Murray as he was during his round robin matches. At Wimbledon, I made the same mistake of writing off Federer after his struggles against Benneteau and Malisse. Though I always thought he could win more Slams, I didn’t see it coming when he won his 17th. At this tournament, based on his poor form, I’ve been picking against him all week. I can’t do it again after his utter demolition of Murray. Fed in straights or bust. (Probably bust, based on my picks record as of late.)
Lindsay’s Pick: This entire tournament has gone according to seed except for Delpo’s match against Federer in the final day of Round Robin play. So while my instinct is to go with Federer because of his WTF history and the fact that he is just defying the odds time and time again, I’m going to pick this one by the numbers and go with Djokovic. It’s the last match of the year for the Serb and even though he’s No. 1 in the world he will definitely feel (and sound–hello London crowd!) like the underdog. And I truly feel like this will be the kick that Nole needs to end the year on a positive note. I predict 3 close sets, with Nole squeaking out the win.
Juan José’s Pick: I want to believe that Shanghai meant something. I thought that Novak Djokovic really found himself in that final against Murray, down match point (five times). I also want to believe that the way Djokovic finished his match today against Del Potro shows the potential not only for a great performance in the final of these World Tour Finals, but also for 2013. However, in both of those matches, Djokovic came back after being down a set and a break. I’m not sure he can pull that off against Federer, who was so ruthless against Murray in the semis. That hole might be too deep for him to climb. Also, this is 2012 Novak Djokovic in big finals. Shanghai felt like the first good performance in one of those, and that was only after going down 5 match points. This is why I have to go with Federer in two sets, in a repeat of sorts of the 2012 Cincinnati final.
Standings after the November 12th Picks:
Juan José: 8-5
Fernando welcomes new tennis sites and therefore has graciously decided to comment and jump start this sites legitimacy. You are welcome for the Fernando Bump. Now for the much anticipated Fernando breakdown:
Fernando says Elegant Maestro looked pale and a bit tired at the start of his match with New Fang and started out that way but remarkably turned the match around. It was a vintage Maestro performance. On an indoor court his one handed backhand is a thing of beauty when clicking, no?
Now to Djoker. Djoker has a much better second serve, is mentally stronger than New Fang and is highly motivated. Maestro is well….Maestro, and this is his best surface. Both players will be very loose.They both have had great years and now have made it to the WTF so a loss will not really mean much, Maestro has beaten Nole the last two times they have played so there are no patterns here.
Fernando analyzes each match relying on Fernando’s tennis acumen, the aid of his staff and advanced analytics. All with Uncle Toni’s permission of course Fernando holds back.
The difference is this match will be Nole’s serving and his return of serve. Maestro will not be able to tee off on Nole’s second serve. Nole’s retun game is just too good. Even indoors. Also, this is the 3rd match in 3 days for Maestro.
I am Fernando @vivafernando
The staff at The Changeover gleefully welcomes the Legendary Fernando, and is most grateful for the imminent and powerful Fernando Bump! We revel in our newly gained legitimacy – we cannot thank Fernando and his staff enough.
As someone who picked the Elegant Maestro in two quick sets basically because he doesn’t trust Djoker in a big final anymore, I will probably succumb to the Mighty Fernando’s tennis acumen, and the hard work of his staff.
We thank Fernando for his visit, and hope he and his staff visit us often!
The big, screaming reason Federer won in Cincy was that Djokovic was spent after playing Toronto following the Olympics. That was a big-time grind.
Here, Federer is the player operating at a slight deficit in terms of rest and recovery. Djokovic has his mind rightly occupied by his father’s health, and he’s certainly not looked his best, but Federer hasn’t played the autumnal indoor swing of 2012 the way he played the 2011 swing, to say the very least.
This is a complete toss-up. I’d be lying if I said I had a good feel for the match, but the one thing I can say with confidence is that Federer will not win a set by a two-break (or three-break) margin.
Djokovic in 3 if you put a Jacket on my back and a gun to my head.
You were right, Matt! Thanks for this. One reason I was disappointed about Djokovic’s performance in the Cincy final was that his run to the Toronto title was more like the something you see at a 500 than a M1000. He only lost one set in the process (to Tommy Haas in the QF), and only gave up 10 games combined in the semis and final, while not having to face anybody in the top 5.
Then in Cincinnati Djokovic played barely three whole matches, since Davydenko no-showed for their 2nd round match, and didn’t lose a set on his way to the final. Djokovic also mopped the floor with DelPo in the semis (3 and 2), and Federer was the 2nd semi that day. For all those reasons, I seemed to me that Djokovic was finally going to break his Cincinnati duck. Instead, he no-showed for the start, and then missed a few chances to send it to a decider. As in many of the post-AO matches, Djokovic started slowly, and Federer made him pay for it.
For the first three games yesterday it sure seemed like Cincy was going to happen again. But Djokovic stopped the rut and got the return of serve going again. However, Federer played a great game to break Djokovic at 5-4, and the tiebreaker was a complete toss-up. Maybe after that long grind of a set Federer started to feel the effects of three straight days of playing top 5 guys. He is 31 after all!
I am only coming to this presently, as I was unable to watch the match live over here with our shitty TV tennis schedule. However, I just wanted to touch base on the fact that a new tennis site with fresh opinion is fantastic!! Of course, to see a familiar face in Fernando, is always a good thing, no?
I’m glad you found us, Andrew! And we are most delighted to have Fernando’s blessings.
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